As I’m writing this, its approximately 11 degrees below zero outside. It was so cold and windy yesterday that one of the hemlock trees in my backyard cracked in half, grabbing our power lines in a precarious tangle and falling into the branches of an adjacent oak tree giant that saved our garage.
At the same time, far away from my quiet corner of New England, there is a new Russian offensive in Ukraine, deepening the conflict that – among other terrible consequences – continues to stretch fossil fuel availability and has sent prices skyrocketing.
It’s days like this when decisions around how we power our lives seem most important.
I’ve written some about our effort to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, ranging from installing ductless minisplits throughout the house to switching to a one-car, electric vehicle household. I realized that it’s been about one year since we did both, and I thought it might be interesting to revisit how it’s going.
First, a Great Blog Post Series on High-Efficiency Electric Heat Pumps
I wrote a while back about installing air-source heat pumps (ductless minisplits) throughout the house. As a reminder, these are electric units that use compressors to pull the heat out of the air outside and transfer it into your home, and conversely take the cold out of your home and transfer it to the outdoors. An added bonus is that on hot days they can cool your home (they do this by running in reverse).
My former State Senator Will Brownsberger has recently been posting about his own journey to eliminating natural gas from his home, which has been a great read. You can find it here. Below are the things I found most insightful (and surprising, and at times disappointing).
“Cost reductions and price volatility reductions are not among the reasons to electrify. Even when converting from dirty oil furnaces, the economics are uncertain; a furnace upgrade may be cheaper on a total return basis. ”
This post
This finding from his extensive research and efforts was painful to read, especially since every activist, scientist, policy wonk, and tree hugger agrees that we need to move away from fossil fuels heating our homes. To be clear, I don’t doubt his findings. It’s just hard to square the alarm bells sounding off that we need to ditch fossil fuels with the reality that not only is it expensive, inconvenient, and invasive (as are all home improvement projects) to install heat pumps, but that they also probably won’t save you any money in the near-to mid-term. Here’s the table he used to show typical cost increases:
“In the many municipalities with their own light department or a municipal aggregation program, the probability of operating savings is high . . .”
This post
This was good news to hear, since Holyoke has its own gas and electric utility and is well-known for low rates. Using the Belmont Light electric rates (Brownsberger’s home town), he calculated that he saved $348 on costs annually by electrifying versus using heating oil. Holyoke’s electric rates are lower than Belmont’s ($0.14/kWh versus $0.185/kWh, respectively), so I can assume savings are even better for me.
(As an aside, I didn’t realize that one advantage municipal utilities have over corporate utilities is the ability to enter into long-term contracts. This stabilizes overall costs, which has been a huge advantage this winter as National Grid customers have seen prices soar while municipal utility impacts have been much more muted.)
“[Climate planners] note the cost advantages of partial conversions over whole-home conversions . . . They see partial conversions as the most promising approach to increase adoption rates.”
This post
Brownsberger notes that – like me – most people aren’t going to make the investment to plunge head-first into whole-home conversions to air-source heat pumps, for a variety of reasons. In my case, it was the high capital cost of removing the gas boiler, steam pipes, and radiators from every room in the house, as well as the uncertainty that heat pumps would be able to sufficiently heat our home on the coldest days (like today).
The downside to this approach of partial conversions is that whole-home conversions are critical to achieving climate goals. The race to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius can’t be won using half measures. The best-case scenario is that partial home conversions are a gateway to eliminating fossil fuels in homes, though who knows if they actually will be.
“Insulate first.”
This post)
I’ve read this over and over again, and it makes sense to me – replace those windows, add attic insulation, seal cracks, and blow insulation into walls before you make other heating efficiency investments.
The Heat Pump Verdict, One Year Later
Even though installing the minisplits was – like all home improvement projects – expensive and somewhat stressful, my wife and I love our minisplits. The main advantage, which Brownsberger notes repeatedly, is that we now have whole-home air conditioning in addition to heating.
Previously, we had to go through the seasonal process of installing and then removing our window AC units, which was not only annoying, it also looked unsightly to have them sticking out of our windows. One of the window units was so big that I had to tempt, beg, and/or trick whatever friend I could find to help out. I’m glad to be done with that.
In terms of cost, I think it’s been a modest success. Our combined gas and electric bill from mid-November through mid-December 2021 was $260, while the same period for 2022 was $230. Here is the breakdown:
| Mid-November through Mid-December | 2021 | 2022 | % Change |
| Natural Gas (CCF) per day | 4.65 | 1.00 | -78.5% |
| Electricity (kWh) per day | 29.44 | 52.31 | +77.7% |
I expect our natural gas usage to go down even more once we replace our natural gas water heater, which is getting toward the end of its useful life, with a high-efficiency electric one. It’s worth noting that we also now power our EV car through mostly at-home electric charging, which I’ll write about next time.
So what’s the verdict? From an environmental perspective, I fully endorse. It has significantly reduced our use of natural gas, except on the really cold days (like today).
From a cost perspective, I endorse with caveats. Like Brownsberger, I can’t deny that there are large up-front costs that don’t necessarily pencil out in the short- to mid-term, even for those served by a municipal utility. For us, my best guess is that it will take 5 to 10 years to hit the breakeven point from the initial capital investment.
Would I do it again? Absolutely, and in fact am planning in the next year or two to have at least one more minisplit installed to better heat our first floor, which only has one unit for the entire area. If that works out, in the longer term, I am hoping to – like Brownsberger – fully remove our gas-powered heating system and segue into the whole-home conversion our climate plans encourage.
Pioneer Valley Planner 